MY FOOLPROOF SYSTEMS
FOR
PICKING WINNERS
AT THE
TRACK
DISCLAIMER: THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS PRESENTED FOR RECREATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY! DO NOT TAKE IT SERIOUSLY! IF YOU USE THESE SYSTEMS AND LOSE YOUR MORTGAGE OR YOUR LIFE SAVINGS, I DISAVOW ALL KNOWLEDGE OF YOUR ACTIONS! IN OTHER WORDS, IT'S ONLY A JOKE!
SYSTEM ONE
Traditional Handicapping
Each horse in the race you want to plunge on will be assigned a numerical value as determined below:
Step 1: Evaluate the horse's form by counting the number of white feet it has.
Step 2: Evaluate the horse's class by assigning it zero points for a cool name ("Citation"), five points for a corny name ("Mike's Pastries") and ten points for an incomprehensible name ("Quonochotaug.")
Step 3: Evaluate the horse's connections by counting the number of times the jockey is yelled at by irate spectators in the walking ring or was cursed at by the plungers around you in the grandstand during the running of the last race. ("Obscenity 'so and so' is five wide again. He's all over the obscenity track! He's the obscenity worst!")
Step 4: Evaluate the horse's speed by adding the lengths it finished behind the winner in its last three races and divide that number by the amount of beers you have consumed.
Step 5: Add the results of the four steps above, the horse with the lowest number gets your bet. Hammer it!
Money management tip: Determine the amount to bet on each horse by dividing the amount of money you have lost so far by the number of races left on the card multiplied by the square root of the odds on the horse.
Example: You get a hot tip on a sure thing in the eighth race of a twelve race card. "Iamgoingbrokebettingtheponies" has odds of 4 to 1 and you have burned up $500 in losing wagers over the last seven races. Your next bet is therefore (500/5) x the square root of 4, or 100 x 2 = $200.00. (All $200 to win--no wimpy place or show bets, please). If you lose the bet, double the next one and each successive bet until you finally get a winner. (Or jump off the roof of the clubhouse.)
Good luck!
NOTICE: WHAT FOLLOWS IS ALSO A JOKE!
SYSTEM TWO
Duh! (I mean Due) Column Betting
Step 1): Pick a number, any number between 1 and 10. (For best results, choose a number between 1 and 7, but if eight is your lucky number, what the hey, go for it! And If you really like to gamble, pick a number from 11 to 14.)
Step 2): Decide on how much profit you want to make from a day at the races and then simply bet on your chosen number the amount of money based on the odds that will furnish you with your desired profit. If you win your first bet, you're finished for the day.
Step 3): If you lose your first bet, then just bet on the same number again, although this time you will have to wager not only enough money to give you your original profit, but also to recover your loses from the first bet. If you win your second bet, you're finished for the day.
Step 4): If you lose your second bet, then just bet on the same number again, although this time you will have to wager not only enough money to give you your original profit, but also to recover your loses from the first two bets. If you win your third bet, you're finished for the day.
Step 5): If you lose your third bet, etc.
Step 6): If you lose your fourth bet, etc.
Step 7): If you lose your fifth bet, etc.
Step 8): If you lose your sixth bet, etc.
Step 9): If you lose your seventh bet, etc.
Step 10): Your number finally won! Unfortunately, your humongous bet on it resulted in final odds of 1-9. Were your pockets deep enough to make the heavy-duty wager required to cover your loses and gain your profit on such a short priced horse? Whadda you mean you don't feel like pushing $10,000 through the window just to make a measly $200 profit? Are you a boy (or a girl) or a man (or a woman)? This system is fool proof; sooner or later your number absolutely, positively has to win and leave you in the green. If not today, then the next one for sure. (As long as you double your bets to make up for your losses of the day before, of course.) Bring enough cash!
WARNING: EVERYTHING BELOW IS PURE BUNCOMBE!
SYSTEM THREE
The Morning Line Meets The New Math
Write down the numbers 1 thru 14 on the corners of the pages of the track program. Tear the corners off and keep the slips of paper. Before each race, take the slips of paper with the numbers face down and shuffle them around on top of the bar. (That's where you are, isn't it?) One by one, pick them up and write the selected number down in columns, top to bottom, left to right on the back of a napkin. (Ignore all numbers not used in that particular race.) Each number represents an entry. Next to the entry, write down the morning line odds from the program. Since the track handicapper always fudges the odds (most people won't plunge on real long shots or very short priced horses), add 30 to any horse with odds of 10-1 or more and divide the odds of any horse listed at 2-1 or less in half. You should wind up with something like this:
8 (3) 3 (40) 1 (6)
4 (1) 2 (5) 5 (4)
7 (2-5) 6 (40)
Next, compensate for any priority parameters that might occur. If any vertical column adds up to 5 or less, and the jockey on one of the horses in that column is wearing silks that have a bow tie or is chewing gum, add 10 to the odds on his (or her) horse. (You have moved down to the walking ring by now, right?) If any vertical column adds up to 50 or more, and the jockey on one of the horses in that column is wearing buff-colored trousers over his (or her) boots, divide his odds by 2. (That's a very cool look!) Be sure and ask the guy next to you at the walking ring what horse he likes in the race. If he is unshaven, add 10 to the odds on his horse. If he has shaved, subtract 1 from the odds on the horse. If a pretty girl asks you which horse you like, always (and I mean ALWAYS! if you want to get anywhere) give her a horse with a chick jockey on it and then divide its odds in half, unless the babe on horseback is wearing makeup, in which case you double the horse's odds. When you are finished adjusting for the priority parameters, you should wind up with something like this:
8 (3) 3 (20) 1 (6)
4 (11) 2 (5-2) 5 (4)
7 (20) 6 (39)
In the above example, the 4 horse had a jockey chewing gum, the 7 horse had a jockey both chewing gum and wearing a bow tie, the 3 horse had a jockey in over-the-boot buff trousers, the 2 horse was the one you gave to the pretty girl with the freshly scrubbed chick jock aboard and the 6 horse was the hot tip from the shaven guy standing next to you.
The next step is to add the two diagonal rows from top left to bottom right and from bottom left to top right. The results from the above example are 5.5 (the 5-2 was converted to 2.5) and 28.5. Divide the result of adding the top left, bottom right row by the middle number in the first column and the result of adding the bottom left, top right row by the middle number in the last column. The results would be 0.5 and 7.125. Since there is no horse number 0.5, you go with the 7 horse (7.125 rounded off.) If you come up with two numbers that make sense, you made a mistake somewhere; go back and do it all over again. Note: If your final result is not the same horse chosen as the top pick in that race by the public handicapper in the sports section of your morning paper, pass the race.
MORE MALARKEY!
SYSTEM FOUR
Dutching (Pardon the ethnic slur)
Bet every horse in the race to win. Vary the amount you wager on each horse according to its respective odds to ensure you a profit no matter who wins. You'll have to do some fast number crunching while in line at the window to be successful at this, because the odds change right up to the start of the race, and the final odds aren't even posted until the race is finished. Bring a calculator. For best results, hog one of the machines so you can punch in your bets fast and furious right up until the bell rings. Note: If the favorite is 8-5 or less, or several horses in the race have the same odds, you're screwed, but you're screwed anyway if you're reading this for real advice.
STILL MORE HAPPY HORSE MANURE!
SYSTEM FIVE
The Old Bet $5 Across 'Shoe' in Every Race Method
Bet on a hot jockey. That way, when your guy wins four races in one day, you're happy because he brought in a couple of long shots for you, even while he's mad because his victories came in cheap claiming or allowance races and he pooped out in the two big stake races on the card with their high purses. Be advised that the leading rider at a track is not necessarily the best rider. Look at win percentages, not total victories. If your jockey goes cold, drop him without mercy. (An awful lot of people bet this method exclusively, but alas, since Julie retired, I cannot. She will always be my go-to rider.)
WILL THIS NEVER END?
SYSTEM SIX
Touting as Chaos Theory
This system if based on the fact that random events occur in clusters, and with all due respect to horses, trainers and jockeys, finishes in horse races are essentially random events. This method is a very simplified version of the way the Marine Corps sergeant who first introduced me to horse racing approached the sport when determining his bets. His system was vastly more complex than what follows, and I didn't understand it then, nor could I reproduce it now, but here is the gist of it.
Watch the first two to four races and keep track of the top three finishers in each race. As soon as several numbers begin to cluster, those are the ones you bet on for the rest of the card as a lock to win, place and show several more times during the day. Numbers can cluster as follows: win/win, win/place, win/show or place/place. Attach less importance to place/show and show/show clusters. Clusters can occur as early as the first and second race or as late as the third and fourth race. They can also occur across the first and fourth race, or any other combination between the first and fourth races. Clusters that occur after the fourth race are generally not as reliable. Sarge used to tell me that the phenomenon of statistical clustering in horse racing was often mistaken for shifting track bias, but I'll leave that for better minds than mine.
Here's an example of this method in action. I have highlighted the clustering numbers with different colors.
Calder Race Course
22 Oct. '00
Race: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Win: 6 6 7 7 2 7 4 9 6 5
Place: 3 9 3 3 5 2 6 3 1 8
Show: 4 1 5 1 3 4 1 1 4 9
Fourth: 5 4 1 8 10 6 8 7 7 6
(Fourth place shown for reference only.)
Note that the 6 clustered first and went on to rack up one more win and a place. The 3 clustered next and picked up two more places and a show. The 7 clustered strong with two wins and then picked up another. The 1 clustered weakly with four shows and a place. The 4 was also a weak cluster with three shows, but it did get a win. The 5 did not cluster until the fifth race, and it was a place/show cluster to boot, yet it scored a win in the last race anyway. In the seventh race, 4,6,1 gave you a nice tri payoff of $229.80, while 6,1,4 in the ninth race got you a modest $103.80 for the tri. If you were playing super boxes with these numbers, 6,1,4,7 in the ninth race landed you a cool $859.
I follow this angle every time I go to the track, and trust me, on a good day when a number clusters early and then goes on to win and place continuously for the rest of the card, it's downright spooky. It's like you've tapped into the inner workings of the universe; you feel those tingles run up and down your spine. On 25 Nov. '00 at Calder Race Course, number 4 won the first four races, placed in the fifth race, showed in the sixth race and won the seventh race. On 3 Dec. '00, the magic 4 placed in the first race, placed in the third race, won the fourth race, placed in the fifth race, won the sixth race, placed in the eighth race, showed in the eleventh race and finished fourth in the twelfth race. Maybe I should create a new system: Bet post position 4!
Stop the presses! On 9 Dec. '00 at Calder, the 3 won the eighth, ninth, tenth and eleventh races. Incredible enough, but would you believe those were the four stakes races on Grand Slam I Day for the Tropical at Calder Meet and the track offered a pick four wager on those races. The winning ticket of 3,3,3,3 (!!!) paid $6,678.60. (No, I didn't have it.) Oh yeah, the 3 also won the second race, showed in the twelfth race and finished fourth in the fourth, fifth and seventh races.
On 4 Feb. '01 at Gulfstream Park, the 7 won the second, third, sixth and eleventh races. It placed in the first and seventh race and showed in the fifth and eighth races. That was eight out of eleven races in the money!
On 25 Mar. '01 at Hialeah Park, the 2 won the second, third, fourth and eleventh races. It placed in the sixth and seventh races. That was six out of eleven races in the money! You get the drift by now, I'm sure. Provide your own examples from here on out.
You can also keep track of the horses that finish fourth and trace clusters running that deep if you wish, but that's too much work for me. I'll leave that for people who like to plunge on superfectas. The top three will give you excellent results for win/places, exactas and trifectas, with an occasional decent superfecta thrown in.
I have only bet this system on a lark, but it does work most of the time if you practice sound money management and quit while you're ahead. I always consult it when trying to pick an extra horse or two to stick in my tri or super. Note that the above example uses ten live races. Skip simulcasts from other tracks that interrupt the live races on your card.
I've also watched this system work off and on for greyhounds and jai alai, but I've never followed it long enough in those venues to recommend it. And, alas, I know next to nothing about trotters and pacers. Do those studies yourself! But I bet I could still make a living selling this "Sure-fire, Never-fail, Idiot-proof, Easy-money-making, Retire-early-at-the-track System" over the net for $100 a pop. I must be crazy to just give it away!
THIS GOES ON, AND ON, AND ON!
SYSTEM SEVEN
The Female Connection
Conformation
Handicapping System
Tired of traditional handicapping methods that involve a lot of number crunching? Do you want a quick and easy way to handicap a race that's a lot more fun than analyzing the charts? Well, Mr. Punter, have I got the answer for you! Try conformation handicapping, instead. No, I'm not asking you to be on the lookout for bowed tendons, cow hocks and pig eyes; it's not the horses conformation that I want you to scrutinize. What you really need to be taking a good, hard look at in order to pick winners are all the fabulous babes at the track. That's right, sir, the secret to cashing tickets is to simply make your picks in each race the horses that have the finest looking female connections. Be she a darling young jockey, a gorgeous middle-aged trainer, a "tough-broads-are-cute" groom, an owner's dynamite trophy wife or even his adorable teenaged daughter or--what the heck, how about that tomboy lass of an escort pony rider?--these connections will never spin you wrong.
Personally, I find so many eligible contenders within the entries' various female connections, that I have to resort to a hierarchy to make my final selections. The jockeys, of course, always have priority. (This system grew out of all my Julie Krone bets.) The trainers follow, and then come the other connections in equal order. If there's a filly jock in the race, she becomes my top pick. If there is more than one of the tender sex on horseback, then I rate them according to my own private ranking of the talented and attractive young ladies in our local jockey colony. (Never mind what my personal standings are!)
If there are no female jockeys in the race, then I make my top pick the horse with the best looking female trainer. Again, I have private rankings for those, too. (I must say that the older I get, the better looking "mature" women become.) If there are no female jocks or trainers in the race, then I pick the horse with the best looking other female connection, regardless of who or what they are. My friends, I have even bet on a horse because the jockey's mother is a looker!
If you can't decide between the various contenders, then just bet them all! No girl jock ever rides without at least $2 of my money on her, no matter how bad she is. (That's called "chump" betting, though I always liked the English word better: "mug.")
You may think this method is insane, but check the results here.
And you laughed at my system, didn't you? Well, Mr. D. R. Form, this exclusive handicapping method of mine lands about one super-bomb a month and consistently picks horses that pay anywhere from $10 to $50 for a $2 win bet. Exactas and doubles are more common than you might think, too. The tri's and bet threes are more sporadic, but they always feature good payoffs. Mind you, I'm only talking about playing one track on the weekends. Imagine how I would clean up if I went to the track everyday and played all the simulcasts! You go girls!
AND ON, AND ON, AND ON!
SYSTEM EIGHT
The They'll Never Bother You Again for a Pick System
Are you striding forthrightly to your seat in the grandstand because you've just plunged on your five-star, can't miss, no-fail, lock-of-the-card long shot and you're looking forward to a huge payoff, when suddenly, some guy steps in front of you and asks, "Who do you like in this race?" Egad! Whatever you do, don't give him your pick! He and his friends might put enough money on the horse to drive its odds down. Instead, give him the horse with the same number as the race. If it's the first race, give him the one, if it's the second, give him the two, etc. And when your long shot finishes last, you might as well go ahead and bet this system anyway, for all the good your regular handicapping has done. (Update: I should have followed my own advice! Last Saturday a guy asked me for my pick in a certain race and I went ahead and gave it to him. Did he bother to thank me? H*ll no! "Ha!" he scathingly retorted. "That girl on the outside. Hmmph!" Then he stalked off. His tone left no mistake that he thought I was a complete idiot. Well, sir, my pick placed and paid almost as much as the favorite did to win. Or to put it another way, I am only a partial idiot!)
AND ON, AND ON, AND ON!
SYSTEM NINE
The Punter Special
Here is the single, most popular "handicapping" method of all for exotic wagering: play your lucky numbers! If you've ever stood in line behind some dear old girl at the mutual window while she bets a bunch of superfectas based on her grandchildren's birthdays, then you'll know the appeal of this technique. I used to use it myself years ago, but I have far too much respect for the magnificent sport of horse racing in my mature years to employ such a crass method. (Actually, I was making exotic wagers based on the odds employing all sorts of wild and crazy "systems," but it's the same principle.) I now reserve this technique for the dogs and for the guys who throw a round rock against a wall with funny shaped baskets strapped to their wrists. (In other words, I couldn't handicap greyhounds or jai alai to save my life.) Lucky number betting works best at the dog track, where exactly eight dogs run in each race and you're able to bet on fourteen races one right after the other. Practically any three or four numbers you choose out of eight will come up at least once per card if you bet them consistently in perfecta, tri and super boxes. Sooner or later, you'll hit that three figure perfecta, four figure tri or five figure super. (Here's a hint: play the numbers 1, 2, 3 & 8 at the dogs.)
AND ON, AND ON AND ON!
SYSTEM TEN
The Bet Against the Handicapper Method
Take your favorite "expert" handicapper and make a note of his top three picks in each race. Then toss those horses out. Instead, bet to win every other horse in the race with morning line odds of less than 20-1. Vary the amount you wager on each horse according to the tote board odds to ensure a profit no matter who wins. (See System Four.) On an average day, you'll win a third of your bets which will make you every bit as good as the "expert" handicapper. On a good day, you'll win a half to two-thirds of your bets, which will make you a phenom. Don't get cute and bet the 20-1 shots, though, "just to be sure." You'll go broke. If you want to hedge, keep the handicapper's third choice in the mix.
My all-time favorite handicapper to bet against is the ring tout. (The track's--ahem!--racing analyst.) I know this must be a good system because I hear so many people complain about the guys (and the girl) who are the ring touts for Calder, Hialeah and Gulfstream. ("Aw, that bum hasn't picked a winner in years!") Of course, these experts don't help themselves when they say things like, "I'm not going to turn around and look at the tote board, but I may be giving you a 30-1 shot here," or when they give you a scratched horse as their top pick, or when they go on, and on, and on, about the shoe notes. ("Did he say 'bends' or 'rims?'") Not too long ago I found a ring tout standing in line behind me at the mutual window. I immediately revised all my bets and made several wagers in a loud voice, none of which included the tout's horses. That'll show 'em, right? Wrong. My "picks" lost and the tout's won. But you get the point, anyway. Don't you?
ONE LAST PIECE OF DRECK!
SYSTEM ELEVEN
What, you think I'm stupid or something?
Here's a guaranteed win on an exotic bet for all you neophytes. Wait for the race with the most horses in it. Then boldly step up to the mutual window and tell the friendly clerk (use these exact words), "$2 super box, all." The groom standing in line behind you (the guy or gal with the long, lead rein over their shoulder) will smile from fond remembrance of their first day at work when they were sent off from barn to barn in search of the elusive saddle stretcher. (Hint, hint!!!)
Good luck, because if you take any of this seriously, you'll need it!
ATTENTION: I MAKE NO GUARANTEE THAT ANY OF THE ABOVE IS ANYTHING OTHER THAN COMPLETE AND UTTER RAMBLING THROWN TOGETHER ON A LARK AFTER A FEW TOO MANY BREWS! DO NOT BET MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE! IF YOU HAVE A GAMBLING PROBLEM, CALL YOUR LOCAL HOTLINE! IN FACT, I STRONGLY ADVISE YOU TO AVOID THE TRACK, STRONG DRINK AND LOOSE WOMEN ALTOGETHER!
All right, already, for all you plungers out there, here's how I really try to make money at the track. Just bear in mind that when you bet like I do, you have to have a lot of patience because winners don't come too often, but when they do, they set you up for a long time. I primarily look for overlays using a variety of easy-to-spot angles that leap out of the charts at you. (I must know every angle in the book by now. If you think angles only consist of "beaten favorites" or "last out in the money" horses, think again. Try instead, "a horse who never got on the board in his last three races coming off of a claim in less than thirty days with a better trainer, a new jock and an equipment change." Can you say "won by a pole at 50-1?")
I bet these horses to win and place. (All you "smart" players out there who pooh-pooh back hole bets unless they're overlays on the tote board, go back to digging up those unpublished maiden two year old workout times--even though they're faked!--and leave this poor weekend plunger alone.)
I also put my overlay in an exacta and a tri along with the other contenders in the race. Sometimes I'll play a super, too. Hitting a good overlay to win, as well as getting the exacta, tri and super is the grandest feeling there is. (At least at the track!) You gotta love those high end, four figure pay-outs! Alas, I have never won in five figures. (Because I'm not a Turf Club high-roller, nor am I one of those geeks who pull numbers out of thin air to put into a super and sometimes get very, very lucky. At least when I lose, I can say to myself, "That was an intelligent bet; it just didn't come off this time.") I also dabble in daily doubles and bet threes, but I avoid pick sixes. Go play the lotto, instead.
My overlay is subject to the impression he makes upon me in the paddock and walking ring, of course. (I hate it when any horse drags himself around the ring with a shortened step, drooping head, tucked tail, wilted ears and dull eyes. I bail off of him fast if I'm considering him anywhere on one of my tickets. And I silently curse the trainer and the track vet for letting such an obviously ailing animal race. I could kick myself for all those years I never budged from the grandstand and bet on horses that probably stumbled around the ring in an obvious unsound state before dying--alas, sometimes literally--in the stretch. Fellow plungers, go the paddock and ring before you bet!)
Another tactic I like to use often is betting several horses to win a single race. I only do this in races featuring a vulnerable favorite who has been bet down leaving the other contenders at 3-1, 5-1, 7-1, 9-1, etc. For what it's worth (and in my most humble--but experienced--opinion) betting multiple winners in select races is the most consistent method for earning a steady, if modest profit. This is a grind-it-out method of beating the races and it is bereft of glory, but at least it will not leave you chasing your loses trying to finally hit that one big tri or super. (If I ever retire to the track, this is the technique I'll use.)
As far as picking the run-of-the-mill contenders in each race is concerned, I usually leave that to the pros. I am not in any way, shape matter or form a chart geek. As Menckin said, there's a certain kind of mind that can quote you, "How many tons of lard were shipped by rail across the state of Pennsylvania in 1927," but that's not me, although it's the perfect description of the mind of a professional handicapper. You neophytes would not believe how simultaneously deep and mundane a subject thoroughbred handicapping can be. Some of its leading lights are seriously anal and can dissect every single, infinitesimal parameter of a race to the nth degree and beyond. Sheesh, get a girlfriend, guys! You're studying a bunch of dumb animals being ridden around a track--quite unwillingly from their point of view--by a pirate's den of rogues, vagabonds, and outright dirty b*st*rds with short-man complexes, in order to placate the petty Human vanity of some rich, thieving reprobate of an owner--who is probably getting ripped off by his crooked, doper of a trainer--and to give a mob of drunken idiots a spectacle to yell at and lose money upon. You would think your average major league horse handicapper was talking about astrophysics, though, from their seriousness. Crunch those second call numbers guys! I'll be up in the grandstand having a beer and eying the nice butt of a pretty girl at the rail through my binocs while you're figuring out which horse will win at 4-5. (I've got my money on the 12-1 horse with the peaking form. It's called, "looking for value" and "having an edge." Sound familiar? Or, to put it another way, I'm betting on your "scare horse.")
Yet, despite all this, I still respect Andy Beyer as God, and I readily admit that any of you out there who make your own speed figures, class par times, odds, etc. are brain childs far above me. I, on the other hand, most decidedly do not go to any such lengths, and as most days I roll into the track just before post time for the first race, where I see the program or the Form for the first time, I don't have much of an opportunity for serious handicapping; what little I have is used in searching for those elusive overlays. I am the classic weekend plunger, perhaps a little less clueless than the average, but still an "amacher all the same."
Of course, I do break down and handicap occasionally (when I have the time), because it is an integral part of the overall track experience. I use a rudimentary method that borrows a little from this system and a little from that. Its most notable virtues are its ease and speed, but it is accurate enough to give me the same three horses that all the other handicappers out there come up with, although my exact order may be different from theirs, and I'll live with that. The hard part, of course, is trying to decide which one of those three horses will win the race. There's no method or system for that; you're adrift in a sea of intangibles. (Can he stretch out another panel? Is this drop back done out of desperation or confidence? Is he going to get in a suicide duel with that other burner in the race and allow the closer to sneak by? He's never run on the turf before; does he have the breeding for grass? This is a big class jump for him; does he have back class? He has front bandages, but doesn't his trainer always use those as standard equipment on his horses? Blinkers on, blinkers off, can't that trainer make up his mind? Boy, he sure is oozing a lot of kidney sweat today, but wasn't he sweating just as badly on the day I saw him win big a couple of weeks ago? Look at the cheekbones stick out on that jockey, he's as pale as a sheet; purge city, baby; he must be as weak as a kitten! Now there's an interesting jockey change, what do I make of that? Etc., etc., etc.) Don't you love it when you bleed like a two year old in his first race while making a pick and then the flea-bitten nag doesn't even finish on the board? Frankly, I hate rote handicapping designed to find the 1-1, 2-1 & 3-1 top picks, who lose two-thirds of the time anyway. Let the geeks do that. Give me long shots!
As many races don't have a good value overlay, I am content to just make a token action bet on most races. (See "The Female Connection Conformation Handicapping System" detailed above. As a matter of fact, I like that "system" so much that I even bet it as a "saver" bet in the races I do plunge on.) This gives me a rooting interest in each race and without that, what's the use of even going to the track? (With all due respect to the cute bartenders!) If I am a gambling degenerate because I never pass a single race, then so be it. I'm having fun and I win just enough throwaway bets to keep me happy.
As a rule, I don't plunge on two year olds, maiden three or four years olds, or on major stakes races. The first two are impossible to predict and the latter are too close to call. (Exception: stakes races on rainy days. Find those mudders! And, of course, I go crazy on the Triple Crown races and on Breeder's Cup day.) I only bet serious money on claiming, allowance, handicap and lower class stakes races. If you plunge on every race (trust me when I tell you this, it is the voice of experience talking), you will be buried pronto! Remember: spot plays, now and forever.
I refuse to use touts, tip sheets, handicappers, subscription services, etc. to give me a pick for a prime bet. Nobody else is going to tell me how to burn my money! All I need their picks for is to pad my exactas, tri's and supers with after I've hand picked my own overlay. And if I'm holding a winning exotic ticket that consists of a handicapper's picks that I used as filler, while my long shot finished off the board, I immediately tear the damned thing up.
Not!
That's it! May you only pick winners today and everyday!